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An ex-colonel from the special forces, government minister Al Carns has recently been making strategic moves warning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.

“The shadow of war is knocking on Europe’s door again. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to deter it,” he stated, in comments that exceed previous warnings by his superior, the defence secretary.

“As a whole society – what is their role if we get caught in an fight for survival, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a military endeavour?”

It was stark language from the 45-year-old Scottish-born MP, who has had an exceptionally swift rise to his role of armed forces minister.

Rapid Rise to Prominence

And inevitably for a politician with a background in the armed forces, there is conjecture about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, previous colleagues from a service background before him.

This time, however, some governing party MPs think there could be a real prospect of Carns being a contender if and when the opportunity arises.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former military adviser to multiple previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the risk of being over-promoted as a politician with a backstory colleagues think will appeal to the public – without enough thought of whether they have the track record and political instincts to make it to the top.

From the Battlefield to Westminster

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before enlisting in the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “in recognition of gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a shock when he resigned from the armed forces after 24 years of service to stand as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, shortly before he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a minister for veterans affairs straight after the 2024 election. He was promoted later that year to the more prominent position with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

With a commanding presence, Carns has been an periodic spokesperson for the government, and has been an effective political attack dog when criticising rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to set a new global benchmark this year along with former military colleagues by ascending the world's highest peak in under five days without acclimating on the mountain, aided by xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name was floated as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a deputy contest last autumn, when his backers began canvassing colleagues about a run for the job. That did not gain traction, with the prime minister's office strongly supporting another candidate.

Since then, profiles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be prime ministerial timber, others think he is making himself appear too ambitious when there is no vacancy at the top. There is also a wariness about the rapid rise of a star performer from outside politics.

“It's not proven that being senior in the military equates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” notes one MP. “He is completely untested.”