Where Has the Excitement Gone? This Drop of Open-Play Goals from Open Play
A major talking point of the EPL this campaign is the reduction of scoring in open-play scenarios and how teams have been scoring increasingly from set-plays instead.
Looking at scoring methods to the initial 11 matches the prior season, we note a drop of 39 goals in open play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and penalties, giving us 13 less overall.
Examining overall statistics, shot attempts sides are producing show an incredible drop of 370 in open-play than this time last time out.
Even with the big increase in set-piece goals, records show a mere two extra shots generated from these situations outside of penalties, showing how effective sides have been at devising strategies to convert from dead-ball chances.
Goal Averages Tell the Tale
The 301 goals scored in the first 110 fixtures to date calculates at 2.74 goals per game, if this persists for the entire campaign could be the smallest for five years, from five seasons ago (2.69 average).
Yet merely 196 goals scored in open play equates to 1.78 each match and is heading to be the lowest for 16 years, since 2009-10 (1.76 average).
The 2009-10 season is also the only Premier League season to experience scoring more often from non-penalty set-pieces than the current rate of 0.77 each match (0.79 per game).
Which Teams Bear the Most Responsibility?
Regarding goals scored from open play, Wolves have seen by far the biggest drop, scoring a mere four in 11 games, a reduction of 10 than at this stage the previous campaign.
Outside of Wolves, the EPL's drop in open-play scoring is predominantly a London phenomenon, with five out of the London's seven clubs recording five or more goals fewer from open play than the prior season.
In fairness, this is primarily due to them netting lots of scores at the beginning of the previous campaign instead of them really struggling to find the net in open play the current term.
Meanwhile Manchester City have seen the biggest increase, with nearly all of their 23 scores so far originating in open play.
Dead-Ball Dominance
We've compared clubs that came up with the relegated sides they replaced. Play-off winners Sunderland have recorded three extra goals in open play than Southampton did in their opening 11 matches leading to relegation the previous campaign.
In terms of goals scored from set-pieces (excluding spot-kicks), Arsenal and Chelsea have experienced the most significant jump, with both sides replacing the five fewer goals that they've produced in open play with an equal amount from dead-ball chances.
United have netted twice as many goals from set-plays as they managed in the first 11 matches the previous campaign before their coach took over, while the Black Cats again are more effective at converting than the fellow red-and-whites they superseded.
Manchester City appear not to have received the memo about increasing scoring from set-plays, as they've recorded three less than the previous campaign, as have Nottingham Forest, even if that might be down to the tactical shift they're working to install.
League-Wide Trends
Six sides – Arsenal, the Blues, Fulham, Newcastle, Tottenham and West Ham – have been this season's primary examples by netting less goals from open-play and increased from set-plays, while Manchester City are the unique club to defy the pattern up to now by achieving the exact opposite.
It will be interesting to watch if teams persist to depend greatly on set-pieces as the campaign progresses or if they regain their general attacking flair and begin netting increased totals in open-play as well.
