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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation saw its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another state and abduct its leader – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.