Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Process

Several figures on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.