A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
