Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Decline Over a Third In President Sheinbaum, Per Official Statistics

The average figure of per-day homicides per month in Mexico has dropped by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to new government data. However, public safety experts have warned that homicide numbers might not indicate better national stability.

Significant Decline in Daily Averages

There was an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the leadership in the previous September. This announcement was provided by the chief of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we have seen during these past months is extremely notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, adding that the previous month the lowest number of murders were documented for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Plan

Violent drug cartel rivalries, coupled with the administration's highly militarised operations to confront the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent years. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than four times greater than that of the United States. However, killings have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security strategy for an ostensibly steeper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state declared: “We have a plan, there is oversight of the plan, and we have specific monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan functions. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The key elements of Sheinbaum’s security plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative work.
• Increased cooperation between various agencies.

Analyst Warnings and Data Limitations

But, public safety analysts cautioned that relying on homicide data to paint a picture of pacification was misleading. This is particularly true considering the uptick in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“It would be excellent information if this was a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide data and think: ‘Well then, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

Per the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the same timeframe the previous year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is not reliable for estimating the reality of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the will to correctly recognize and categorize corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month means of daily killings was also concerning because it could hide days when there were notably elevated levels of killings.

“Using the daily average renders surges of violence less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the administration can point to the success of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, according to government figures. More than 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Anger

However in spite of these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with high violence, with multiple regions in the midst of cartel-driven conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent murder of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and across the country to express their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to create a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” the analyst said.